Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Tuesday, 17 June 2025

ausbiz TV: Sentiment stirring in the property market

ausbiz TV

I joined Andrew G at ausbiz TV to talk about the property market turnaround and where buyers are most active in the market.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

New home sales hit 13-month high

New home sales up in NSW, VIC

OK, so the numbers may not be huge, but new home sales picked up in May to their highest level in over a year. 

Buyers have likely been buoyed by the first monetary easing of this cycle, and the prospect for rising prices. 


Source: CommSec

The Housing Industry Association reported that new home sales have been exceptionally weak in New South Wales and Victoria over the past two years.

The solid result this month was largely a reflecting of some normalisation in these markets.

The latest report from the HIA can be read here

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Sunday, 15 June 2025

2-Sense: Is the property collapse finally here?

2-Sense podcast

This week on the podcast, Chris and I discuss the weak Aussie economy, land prices in a tight and undersupplied market, and whether the housing market is actually rising...or slowly collapsing.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch the YouTube version here:


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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Saturday, 14 June 2025

Population growth re-accelerates

Population growth picks up

April is normally a pretty quiet month for immigration into Australia, but the +77,720 long-term arrivals was a big number compared to historical norms (for most of the past decade 50,000 to 55,000 has been typical). 

In fact, it was the highest figure for the month of April on record. 

There were also slightly fewer long-term departures than was the case for the comparable month in 2024.

As such, the total number of permanent and long-term arrivals picked up to +1,119,910 over the year to April 2025, which is now not all that far below the all time high watermark hit in February 2024.

On a net basis, annual permanent and long-term arrivals reaccelerated to +440,330, which was the highest level in 4 months, albeit some way below the all-time record +498,270 reached in February 2024.


As Dr Alex Joiner of IFM points out, that's a average of 93,300 people per month, gross, settling in Australia through the course of the past year. 


Arrivals from India continued to rise to new highs, but arrivals from China, while now recovering, still have a long way to go to get anywhere close to the big figures of yesteryear. 


The wrap

Overall, it looks as though population growth is remaining high, having taken a sharp leg higher through the pandemic reopening. 

Meanwhile, the steady recovery in short-term arrival remains ongoing. 

Short-term visitor arrivals of 641,150 in April was a promising +8.1 per cent lift (+48,050) from a year earlier, but the figure still remains down around 10 per cent from pre-pandemic levels, so there's still a way to go yet. 

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Thursday, 12 June 2025

Housing shortage hasn't gone away...

Rental price pressures eased

Cotality's monthly chart pack showed that the inflation in rents is now calming down nicely, after the huge run-up in rental prices since 2020. 

Housing costs - including rents and construction costs - have been a very significant contributor to the inflation spike in recent years, so this is another win for the central bank to see rental price pressures easing.


Source: Cotality

SQM Research also reported that asking rents - while still up by 4.2 per cent over the year - didn't increase at all in May 2025, reflecting a similar easing in inflationary pressures. 

That said, the housing shortage hasn't really gone away, we're just bunching up more, with average household sizes now increasing. 

SQM reported that the national vacancy rate fell in May 2025 to just 1.2 per cent, even at what is typically a seasonally quiet time of year for the rentals market.

Notably 5 of the 8 capital cities had extremely low rental vacancy rates of under 1 per cent, with Brisbane, Darwin, Sydney, Hobart, and Canberra all now trending lower.  


Meanwhile, Cotality reported that total property stock listings have drifted lower and are now way down on their 5-year average (-13.2 per cent) as we move through the cooler winter months, reflecting a general dearth of quality properties for sale on the market.


Source: Cotality

The housing shortage hasn't been addressed yet, then; if anything, for now it's still getting worse.

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In other news, US core inflation came in lower than expected at just 0.1 per cent last month, while the 3-month annualised figure for headline inflation has stalled to just 1 per cent.

Meanwhile the UK's economy and jobs market both appear to be shrinking in a potentially nasty manner.

This all adds to the generally dovish narrative surround the outlook for global interest rates in 2025 and beyond. 

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Tuesday, 10 June 2025

NAB Survey capitulating

Average home price escalates

The national value of the dwelling stock increased by $131 billion to an estimated $11.37 trillion in the March 2025 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

The land value component accounts for more than $7 trillion of the total, with analyst Cameron Kusher noting how land value increases have outpaced the value of buildings over the past 25 years in a blog post here.


Source: ABS

Over the year to March 2025, the number of dwellings increased by around 180,000 to an estimated 11,338,500, far short of the pace of population growth.

Dividing one figure by t'other gets us to a mean dwelling price of A$1 million for the first time, although in truth the 'mean' price is a fairly 'mean-ingless' figure when it comes to average housing prices, since it can be skewed higher by ultra-expensive homes. 

The increases over the year were fairly broad-based, but with some weakness in Victoria and the heavily-taxed Australian Capital Territory.


Source: ABS

Despite the increase in housing values, the loan to value ratio for the overall housing market has barely moved over the past 25 years, sitting at around only 22 per cent. 

NAB Survey capitulating

The best real-time reading of how the Aussie economy is faring arguably comes from the NAB Business Survey, and, well...the news doesn't look amazing.

In fact, business conditions continued to decline to a reading of zero, continuing a long decline over the past few years. 

The readings for profitability and employment were also both very weak. 


Source: NAB

Importantly, the NAB Survey also gives a reading on potential inflation pressures, which have also seemingly dissipated now.


Financial markets have fully priced in an interest rate cut at the next Reserve Bank meeting for July.

Stock markets in Australia have moved ahead in anticipating some juice from lower interest rates, fully recovering their decline from earlier in the year to close at a record high this afternoon.

Putting all that together, there's no doubt that household wealth will now be breaking new highs in 2025. 

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Sunday, 8 June 2025

2-Sense: Synchronised upswing as price growth converges

2-Sense podcast

This week on the podcast Chris and I discussed the latest property stats, stay-vestors, and the increase in listings in May.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch the video version at YouTube here:


---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today

Wednesday, 4 June 2025

RealWay Finance Webinar with Eric Wu

RealWay webinar

I joined Eric Wu of RealWay Finance to talk about the latest property news and hotspots, and financing strategies.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):