Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Friday, 18 August 2017

England house prices hit new high

Edging higher

A 30-second look at what's been going down in Britain's housing markets. 

The average UK house price hit a new high of just a tad over £223,000 in June 2017. 

This is £10,000 higher than in June 2016, and £2,000 higher than last month.


England drove the gains, with prices there rising by +5.2 per cent over the year to a record high of £240,000, while prices in Northern Ireland remain more than 40 per cent below their peak. 


London has the most expensive market at an average house price of £482,000, while the industrially challenged North East was the cheapest at an average price of £130,000.


The East of England recorded the fastest annual pace of growth at +7.2 per cent, with London price growth easing back to the pack after a stellar run. 


There have been mixed messages around in the Old Dart for a while now, with the unemployment rate having dived to its lowest level since 1975 but Brexit looming overhead as a potentially disrupting factor. 

Then there are the calls to restrict immigration. 

But for now, mortgage rates remain low, first time buyers are very active, and prices continue to hit new highs. 

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Bonus time

Bonus time

This week's wage price figures showed that including bonuses wages increased by +0.7 per cent in the quarter - the strongest result for the June quarter since 2010 - to be +2.1 per cent higher over the year.

The ABS also released its average weekly earnings figures yesterday, which revealed quite a similar result. 

Over the year May 2017, full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings increased by a subdued +1.8 per cent to $1,544.

But the full-time adult average weekly total earnings in May 2017 was $1,608, with a notably stronger rise of +2.1 per cent from the same time last year.

There were as always variations in the underlying figures. 

For example, average earnings for females rose by +2.3 per cent, and for full time females earnings were some +2.6 per cent higher. 

Of course, these numbers are coming from a lower base.

These are average figures, so it's important to note that there are potentially significant differences in the relative number of hours worked, for example.


On the other hand, earnings growth for males has been subdued, with average earnings only up by +1.6 per cent. 


Some males are doing better than others, of course.

For example, the original data shows that full time males in Victoria and the southern states have, on average, seen strong growth in their total earnings over the year to May 2017 - so too, in the ACT - but in Western Australia the equivalent figure fell. 

Queensland bonuses have also pulled back quite sharply since LNG construction dropped off a few years ago.


Total earnings for men have been very high on average in the resources states, reflecting the nature of the work undertaken. 

Indeed, despite the recent malaise, the mining sector still had by a huge margin the highest average weekly earnings of all industries at $2,551. 

Real Estate Talk

Catch me on the Real Estate Talk show (click image to view).


Thursday, 17 August 2017

You better, you bet

10 months of gains

A year ago I made the casual observation that the Australian economy had reached an impasse of sorts: either population growth would have to fall, or employment growth would have to rise.

Leading indicators tentatively pointed towards the latter, and in the end, that's what we got.

In fact, over the past ten months employment has torn +277,880 higher to a record high of more than 12.2 million. 

Over the most recent five months the gains have totalled more than +189,000.

You have to go back more than a dozen years to find a hot streak like it. 


Naturally we got all the usually debates about whether the figures were 'right' or not, but drilling the trend line through the figures shows that annual employment growth has accelerated to a reasonably impressive +2.2 per cent, or +259,220. 


Queensland (+27,000) accounted for almost all of the gains in the noisy monthly figures.

Over the past quarter the the +87,500 net increase in employment has largely been centred upon New South Wales (+35,000) and Queensland (+33,600). 


Unemployment rate improving

The trend unemployment rate has steadily improved over 33 months from 6.25 per cent in October 2014 to 5.62 per cent in July 2017. 

The participation rate edged inched up in July, while the trend employment to population ratio is now back up to the strongest level since May 2013. 

So things have evidently been on the mend, though it's a sobering thought that the UK now has an unemployment rate of just 4.4 per cent, the lowest reported reading since 1975. 

At this rate it will be a few years before Australia gets anywhere close to full employment, if international trends are anything to go by.


New South Wales has by far the best trend unemployment rate of the most populous states at 4.8 per cent.

But the surprise package here is Western Australia, where trend full time jobs have been improving for 10 months and the unemployment rate has declined to 5.4 per cent, now materially lower than the national average.


And finally, for the many doubting Thomases, the annual trend in monthly hours worked improved to +2.5 per cent, the best result in 19 months. 


Sound as a pound.

Wut

The Queensland winter wears on...

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Wednesday, 16 August 2017

Melbourne land sales hit fastest pace on record

New car sales supercharged

The trend result for new motor vehicle sales rose to 101,083 in July, the highest on record.


The recent surge has largely been accounted for by Victoria, where new units sold are +4.4 per cent higher year-on-year in seasonally adjusted terms at 28,349.

Victoria is the home of arguably the most vibrant economy in the country right now: Greater Melbourne.

South Australia has also been improving steadily, with seasonally adjusted new vehicle sales +8.1 per cent higher over the year at 6,269.

In annualised terms, New South Wales has racked up 397,652 unit sales, which is the highest figure ever recorded for any state. 


Sports utilities continue to dominate the sector, and are all set to overtake passenger vehicles as the most popular choice over the months ahead, which has been an extraordinary progression. 


Meanwhile production continues to plummet as the domestic auto industry winds up, and the overwhelming bulk of new vehicles going forward will be imported. 


The wrap

Overall, these were more strong numbers indeed for new vehicle sales, with the Victorian economy once again shining.

This is leading in turn to a starburst of population growth and demand in Melbourne.

Oliver Hume reported that the average time on market for vacant land sales in Melbourne continued a precipitous drop from 200 days in Q4 2012 to a fresh all-time low of just 30 days in Q2 2017. 

Blocks have never been snapped up at anything like this speed before across the history of the data series. 

Demand has been strong locally, with anecdotally even some Sydneysiders now relocating to Melbourne for cheaper housing. 

The median price of land in Metropolitan Melbourne increased by +2.3 per cent in the quarter to $268,000 according to Oliver Hume, with the average lot size declining.

Land prices per square metre increased by $14 to $654. 

Wages bump along along the bottom

Wages bumping along

There's been plenty of talk of wages growth in Australia picking up the pace again as the labour market improves. 

But with plenty of underemployment and spare capacity around, there's barely a flicker of that yet.

Wages growth came in at +0.5 per cent for the June 2017 quarter, and +1.9 per cent for the year.


For all the hand-wringing about record low wages growth and so on, it's worth noting that wages have comfortably outpaced inflation over the past decade.

Wages growth is still ahead of underlying inflation even now, if only just.

Not so widely reported was that public and private sector wages growth including bonuses increased by +0.7 per cent in the quarter - the strongest result for the June quarter since 2010 - to be +2.1 per cent higher over the year.

Furthermore, the numbers of hours worked in the economy has been rising solidly over the past 12 months, even if growth in the hourly rates of pay has been subdued. 

Public sector wages growth has been surprisingly robust in rising by +2.39 per cent over the financial year.

But private sector wages growth really has been in the doldrums, increasing by only +1.78 per cent.

You can see here how private sector wages growth has tailed off since the peak of the resources boom.


The unemployment rate in New South Wales has fallen to just 4.8 per cent - across Greater Sydney it is now below 4.4 per cent - yet to date there are still few signs yet of wages growth really picking up.

Indeed, annual wages growth around the traps was remarkably similar across the states and territories, tracking in a range of +1.9 to +2.1 per cent, with Western Australia the sole laggard at +1.4 per cent. 


Although lower nominal wages growth is seen as a 'bad thing', it is also a mechanism which helps the labour market to adjust through weaker periods. 

Contrary to what you might think, across the past two decades the strongest percentage growth in wage prices has been seen in Western Australia, then South Australia, and then the Northern Territory (although there are of course wide variations within the states). 


Industry trends - services sectors lead

There was a strong +0.8 per cent quarterly pick up in mining wages in the second quarter, with many workers apparently being awarded their first significant pay rise in a couple of years or so, but in annual terms mining wages have still been limping along at +1.1 per cent.

Wages growth in rentals, hiring, and real estate has also been very subdued, reflective of the notable evidence of new entrants to the industry. 

Over the financial year the top performing sector was healthcare and social assistance, an industry that has seen gargantuan employment growth over the past two decades. 


Education and training has been another area of focus for wages growth, perhaps reflective of the surge in international students hailing from Asia. 

Wages growth in financial and insurance services remains quite moderate at +2.1 per cent. 

The wrap

With wages growth stuck at these low levels there are few inflationary pressures around, and there's pretty much zero chance of interest rates being hiked any time soon. 

An optimist might say that in unrounded figures annual wages growth is marginally higher than it was in the final quarter of 2016, though that might be clutching at straws a bit.

Including bonuses, wages growth was better, suggesting that the bottom may well now be in.

Indeed, with minimum wages increases taking effect from 1 July, annual wages growth will very likely be stronger next time around. 

With hiring in the labour market improving strongly in 2017 - and with other forward-looking indicators appearing quite robust - the Reserve Bank anticipates a return to full employment, but also that it may well take a few years for that to play out. 

In the meantime, it seems that many employees will have a tough gig negotiating pay rises.

Jobs figures due out tomorrow!