Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Record Chinese visitors to Australia

Record Chinese visitors

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its Overseas Arrivals and Departures data today for the month of August 2014. 

The number of short-term departures continues to comfortably outstrip short-term visitors (click charts to expand).

Looking at where visitors to Australian shores hail from, it is notable that the number of visitors from China is continuing to boom to unprecedented levels, now approaching 800,000 in the year to August 2014.

Depending on who you believe, arguably this could equate to strong demand for apartments in inner Sydney and Melbourne (in my view, yes it probably will, albeit indirectly).

What is the certainly the case is that this is the pre-cursor to a significant and sustained increase in long-term migrants from the region which will be a trend that plays out over the coming decades.

Long-term migration easing back

The trend in long-term arrivals continues to ease back, now around 8 percent below its peak. This ties in neatly with what we forecast for 2014 population growth by state here

When netted off against long-term departures, net long-term migration has now eased back to around 346,000 on a rolling annual basis, which is some way below the previous cyclical peaks of around 410,000 to 415,000.

Origin of settlers

Settlers into Australia are now overwhelmingly arriving from Asia. While this has actually been the case for decades, the gap between Asian settlers and "the rest" has widened to become a gulf.

Note the decline in settlers from Oceania since 2012 as New Zealanders turn towards different life choices.

Drilling in to the regional level the predominance of settlers from Southern & Central Asia is now clearly marked.

Within the next few months it will become apparent that the major countries of origin of settlers will be China and India, with Brits and Kiwis playing a decreasingly significant role.


In short, there is nothing here which causes us to change our forecasts by state for 2014 population, although our conservative forecasts tend to err on the side of caution and could score a miss to the downside.

What is notable is the increasing influence of Chinese, Indian and other Asian visitors and migrants on Australian demographics.

The total population growth in Australia clocked in at close to 400,000 in 2013 at 396,400.

But while the first quarter of 2014 saw further thumping growth of 106,300 persons, we now see this trend rolling over, and the total growth figure in this calendar year will be significantly lower than in the prior year.

We analysed what is presently happening at the state level here, which is that the population is exploding higher in New South Wales, but falling away quite significantly elsewhere, and particularly in the mining states.