Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Inflation remains well in check (the door is ajar...)

Headline inflation very soft

The ABS released its Consumer Price Index data for the March quarter today.

The figures revealed that headline inflation slowed all the way to just 1.3 per cent, after recording a benign 0.2 per cent rise in the quarter.

The big deflationary contribution came from fuel costs which declined by a massive 12.2 per cent in the quarter and a record 22.5 per cent over the year to March 2015.


Underlying measures above expectations

On the preferred core measures, however, the weighted median (0.64 per cent) and trimmed mean (0.62 percent) prints led to an underlying inflation reading of 0.63 per cent for the quarter. 

After amendments to previous quarters the preferred core measures show underlying inflation tracking at 2.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively, comfortably within the target 2 to 3 per cent range.


Interestingly, non-tradables inflation, being the component of inflation driven by domestic pressures, increased by a sprightly 2.6 per cent.

The wrap

Overall, it was another inflation release which could be interpreted either way.

Despite the soft headline result, the preferred measures of inflation are chugging along well within the target range.

Yet the result does seemingly allow scope for further easing of interest rates should this be deemed necessary by a forward-looking Reserve Bank.

Futures markets see a rate cut on May 5 as approximately an each-way bet as the Reserve Bank weighs up Australia's declining terms of trade with slightly more promising employment data.

The "door is ajar", one might say.