Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 3 April 2015

US jobless claims decline to 268,000 - which is close to the 267,000 seen in the week of January 24 - which was the lowest since April 2000

Initial claims decline


OK I admit that this is not quite the impactful "lowest in 15 years!" header I was gunning for.

Still, 'twas a jolly good result, and rather better than forecasts.

Seasonally adjusted US initial jobless claims - seen to be a worthwhile proxy for redundancies - fell by 20,000 to 268,000 in the week to March 28, which beat market estimates of 285,000.

In the week of January 24 initial jobless claims had been marginally lower at 267,000, thereby spoiling the "lowest in 15 years" party.

But let's not get bogged down in all that again.

The key point is that this was a robust result and represents a further wedge of evidence that the US economic recovery remains on track.

I look at some of other key measures such as the latest Non-Farm Payrolls and the JOLTS index here previously, which also indicated strong momentum in the labor market.

"Pushing on a string..."

There has been plenty of discussion in recent weeks about whether the Reserve Bank in Australia should cut interest rates further, with plenty of folk suggesting that lower interest rates won't do any good.

I'm not sure what the evidence is for this, though.

Stimulatory monetary policy in the US and the UK, for example, has clearly worked, despite taking a good deal of time to do so.

There may even be some evidence around, if one is prepared to look for it, that lower interest rates may already be biting to some extent in Australia, although that substance is admittedly somewhat sketchy.

Anyway, regardless of what I or anyone else thinks, cash rate futures markets are pricing in a cut for Tuesday and another by Q3.

Implied yields on Q1 2016 cash rate futures contracts have ground out new lows of below 1.6 per cent.