Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Thursday, 8 October 2015

Services & commodities exports

Services exports

The latest international trade data showed services exports rising to a new monthly high on a trend basis of $5.3 billion.

This is an increase of +4.4 per cent over the year and a positive sign for the economy.


To put these figures in context, charted below are rolling annual services exports (blue line) charted against the combined value of iron ore, coal, LNG and gold exports (red line). 


Summarily services exports have been increasing solidly - which is helpful - but the outlook for commodities exports inevitably holds more sway.

Over the months ahead the value of commodity exports should begin to increase as projects the Roy Hill development (iron ore) and the Gladstone natural gas venture (LNG) at last begin to kick into gear.

According to D. Knox the first Santos GLNG production is underway and on schedule, with the first $25 million shipment expected to be on its way this week. 

Over the year ahead GLNG exports could add up to $1.5 billion to Australia's trade accounts, and when the project is fully operational it is expected to have the capacity to produce up 7.8 million tons of LNG per annum.

Meanwhile the Roy Hill project will reportedly ship its first iron ore cargo within the next fortnight.

We can therefore expect commodity export volumes to strengthen over the year ahead. 

What kind of downward pressures this could put on iron ore prices in particular is another question...

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The all-important Housing Finance data will be released later this morning.

You can see what happened last month in my previous blog post here.

Will owner-occupiers pick up the slack from inevitably slowng investor loan volumes?

Market consensus is calling for a +5 per cent mointh-on-month uplift in the number of owner-occupier approvals.

It will certainly be very interesting to see what happens at the state level.

In dollar value terms trend owner-occupier lending in New South Wales soared to a record high in July.

In case like me you're a tad dubious about the seasonal adjustments and trend estimates assumptions, as you can see the original data below, NSW recorded its biggest ever month in July, exploding by more than +28 per cent higher than the prior corresponding period.


One to watch with interest.