Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Friday, 5 February 2016

Unemployment to fall to 5.3pc?

SOMP upbeat

Through 2015 the unemployent rate fell from 6.3 per cent to about 5.75 per cent.

And now looking at the forecasts from the Reserve Bank's Statement on Monetary Policy for February 2016 we can see that:

"While employment growth is expected to slow somewhat from the rapid pace seen in the December quarter, it is forecast to remain strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate further."


These central forecasts imply a steady decline in the unemployment rate back towards around 5.3 per cent, but at a slower pace, thus taking until around 2018 to get there.

Inflation forecasts remain benign enough that the Reserve Bank could cut interest rates again if deemed necessary, although the wording of the Statement suggests that rates remaining on hold is the preferred path.

Much appears likely to depend upon the trajectory of interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve and any associated shifts in the exchange rate between the Aussie dollar and the greenback.

Interestingly the GDP growth forecasts remain positive even at the 90 per cent confidence interval for the next three years.