Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Sunday, 27 March 2016

Adelaide unemployment rate hits 8 (eight) per cent

Adelaide unemployment hits 8 per cent

Worrying news for Adelaide as the unemployment rate hit 8 per cent in February according to the Detailed Labour Force figures for February 2016.

The monthly data are volatile and so here I plot them on a 12mMA basis, showing Greater Adelaide at 7.43 per cent and rising hard.

It's great to see that low interest rates are biting in the three largest capital cities.

Sydney is the best placed capital city on this metric, inching down to 5.04 per cent from 5.2 per cent one year ago, while Melbourne is also in a tidy 14 month downtrend.

Brisbane is in a beautiful freefall with the 12mMA unemployment rate fall dropping from 6.29 per cent to 5.74 per cent over the past fifteen months.

The uptrend in Perth is still intact, but only just, ticking up only very marginally to 5.99 per cent over the past four months.

Adelaide, on the other hand, is a problem child.

I warned on this blog a few years back that with employment growth stalling completely in Adelaide, sooner or later the unemployment rate would hit uncomfortable levels or population growth could even go backwards.

That hasn't quite happened yet, but interstate migration from South Australia has now hit negative 4,100 per annum, a level last seen in the financial crisis.

The uptrend in the Adelaide unemployment rate has been in place for fully 48 months now, with the shutdown of the General Motors Holden plant also looming large in 2017, a devastating blow for the working suburb of Elizabeth.