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CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

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Tuesday, 31 May 2016

Building approvals resurgent

Rebound

A triple whammy of positive news for the Australian economy this morning, with net exports set to contribute to +1.1ppts to a solid GDP growth result for the first quarter, business credit rising to its strongest annualised rate of growth since January 2009, and building approvals easily beating expectations.

The April Building Approvals figures showed a seasonally adjusted 20,243 approvals, with the number of units, apartments, townhouses, and semis increasing to 10,490.

Total building approvals have confounded expectations to establish a five month uptrend.



More than 234,000 dwellings have been approved over the year to April, equally split between detached houses and attached dwellings.



As depicted by the green line, this is historically unusual.

Houses and units

Only Melbourne is really going for it on the house approvals front.



Yet in terms of attached dwellings both Sydney (37,228) and Brisbane (21,228) have approved historically high volumes, while Melbourne (31,566) is now retracing from unprecedented heights.


High rise surge - concentration risk

More than 73,000 of the dwellings approved over the past year have been "high rise" approvals of four or more storeys. 


This clear risk is concentrated within pockets of the three most populous states.


Caveat emptor.

The wrap

A terrific set of results for the economy in this morning's data, with the building approvals data suggesting that the residential building boom has a fair way to run yet.

Clearly some areas will be awash with new apartments over the next couple of years, with a twin settlement and valuation risk looming in this sector.