Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Melbourne & Sydney vacancies down over year

Vacancies mixed

More interesting trends reported today by SQM Research for the month of April 2016.

Over the past year Melbourne's reported vacancy rate declined from 2.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent, while in Sydney the reported vacancy rate has fallen from from 1.8 per cent to 1.7 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum, Perth reached a new cyclical high of 4.6 per cent suggesting that the bottom for the Western Australian capital may not yet be in, although lower interest rates may well help to support prices. 

In Perth both median house (-8.4 per cent) and unit (-9,3 per cent) asking rents have declined over the past year, although actual dwelling price declines have been modest. 

Asking rents are also down for Darwin houses (-8.4 per cent) and units (-12.5 per cent).

On the other hand median asking unit rents increased year-on-year or both Sydney (+5 per cent) and Melbourne (+4.1 per cent), while in Brisbane the increase was more modest (+1.3 per cent).

Since month to month vacancy rates can move around a bit, I've smoothed the data below on a 4mMA basis (arguably I should also be applying a seasonal factor, but I haven't so...shucks).

This chart gives an interesting perspective on recent trends, although the Christmas period can be a bit of a distortion.

Fascinating stuff.

In most capital cities vacancy rates have declined over the past year.

In Sydney demand has marginally outstripped supply. Even in apartment construction hotspots such as Green Square vacancy rates have reportedly fallen sharply from 3.5 per cent this time last year to just 1 per cent.

Now sure, you might question the measurement criteria (where a new block of units is constructed only a sample of apartments might be advertised for rent, for example), but aren't the measurement criteria measuring like-for-like figures?