Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 9 May 2016

Retail solid if unspectacular

Retail steady

The Retail Trade figures for March did a little better than expectations in rising by 0.4 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. 

Despite the reasonable monthly result, year-on-year growth has slowed to be a bit below the 5-year average. 

State versus state

The strong housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have generally supported household consumption since 2013.

At the state level retail turnover growth has been led through the cycle by New South Wales and Victoria, but now there is some evidence that other states are beginning to shine. 

Since a new IKEA was opened in sleepy Canberra in November, the ACT has shot the lights out to lead annual retail turnover growth by a wide margin. 

Industry groups

The best industry performers in the month were clothing and footwear (+1.1 per cent) and food (posting +0.6 per cent rebound after some soft readings). 

Year-on-year household goods remains the strongest performing industry. However, even here the annual rate of growth in household goods retail has cooled a little in sympathy with the cooling of house price growth.

The wrap

Overall, the monthly result was solid enough. 

Given that March is also a quarter-end, the Q1 retail results in chain volume measures terms were also reported, with volumes being up by +0.5 per cent for the quarter and +2.4 per cent over the year to March. 

Assuming that wider household consumption does something similar - and adding this in to the positive net exports result for the first quarter - it seems reasonable to expect that the economy grew at a fair pace in Q1.