Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 22 May 2016

State of Australian cities

State of Australian cities

The government's State of Australian Cities report for 2015 revealed some interesting demographic and social trends.

The report found that population growth in recent years is becoming increasingly capital city focussed over time, and this is projected to become even more so the case over the next five decades.

In fact, just the four most populous capital cities plus Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and a handful of other conurbations have accounted for the overwhelming bulk of population growth. 

The other cities and "peri-urban locations" which experienced some population growth were as follows:

Projecting trends forward, the government expects the capital city share of population growth to continue increasing relentlessly for the next half century, from about two thirds to more than 80 per cent by 2061:

"The majority of Australia's future population growth is expected to occur in and around its capital cities...Australia's population living in capital cities will more than double by 2061".

The projections show population growth expanding rapidly so that by 2061 several capital cities will have become very large indeed, including Sydney (8.5 million), Melbourne (8.6 million), Brisbane (5.8 million), and Perth (5.5 million).  

By contrast the respective populations of the smaller cities aren't expected to change all that much in absolute terms. 

House price trends

The State of Australian Cities report notes that for regional cities "overall house prices have not recovered strongly since the financial crisis".

This mirrors quite closely what we have seen in Britain, with house prices rising strongly almost everywhere due to a debt binge broadly from around 2000 to 2008, in Australia's case spurred on by a once-in-a-century mining boom. 

But in most regional markets a long period of stagnation has followed since. 

You don't really need data series to demonstrate this point - just read the personal experiences of property investors on chat forums and their collective frustration is more than evident. 

It's been fairly well documented that house price growth has been strong in the largest capital cities, but house price growth has been far from uniform even within the larger capitals. 

Research conducted on behalf of the Valuer General concluded that price growth continues to be considerably stronger in the suburbs located close to the Central Business District. 

Indeed, research papers by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), AHURI and others have all arrived at the same conclusion.

Concludes the government report:

"Inner urban regions and municipalities such as the Boorondara, inner, northern and eastern statistical districts and the inner Melbourne districts are pulling away from price growth rates of the middle and outer ring regions. 

The differences mean residents of outer urban regions are likely to be increasingly constrained in their ability to move to inner regions."

Source: State of Australian Cities 2014-15