Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 9 May 2016

Stop the slogans!

Three, word, slogans

The worst kept secret in Australian politics is out of the bag, with the Federal Election due to be held on July 2. 

As we get set to be bombarded with three word slogans ("jobs and growth" is already wearing a bit thin) one saving grace is that compared to elsewhere Australian election campaigns tend to be a relative sprint not a marathon, although this one will be an eight week epic in Aussie terms.

By far the most exciting news to date has been that Chris Bowen has shaved off his beard, which resulted in him "trending" on Twitter for several hours yesterday.

Queensland will be a key election battle ground, so the state can expect plenty of attention over the coming weeks. 

In this digital age doubtless few days will pass without clickbait articles declaring the result to be too close to call or neck and neck.

I don't really pay much attention to the early polls, so not really sure what's been going down, but assume on that Turnbull must be miles out in front as preferred PM, but two party preferred is likely to be reported as quite a bit closer in a pre-election campaign poll.

The one thing I do check in on is the odds quoted by bookies, which show the Coalition as a shoo-in (running contrary to an armada of media articles which seems to imply that Shorten is on the cusp of a glorious victory).

It would be extremely unusual to see an Opposition party win after one term - it hasn't happened since the War - while Treasurer Morrison has proferred a "forward defensive" budget which seems to have avoided him getting cleaned up for a golden duck.

Mainly for those reasons, overall I reckon Turnbull will ease home in the end.

Stop the votes

Even with the odds as skewed as they are in favour of Turnbull, the most popular bet has still been a Coalition win.

As for investment strategy, forget negative gearing or the impact of the election on shares or property markets - if you reckon Labor is going to win there must be a retirement Super Yankee staring you right in the face looking at these odds!