Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 27 May 2016

Sydney apartment prices surge to record high

Unemployment rates by capital city

Today's Detailed Labour Force figures reported that Greater Sydney's unemployment rate fell to just 4.8 per cent in April. 

When tracked in rolling annual terms to smooth out the monthly volatility, Sydney's unemployment rate has been cascading lower for 26 beautiful months now.

The unemployment rate in Melbourne has also been trending lower for 17 months, although the unemployment rate in Brisbane has stopped falling for the time being after an impressive run. 

Across most of the capital cities ex-Sydney unemployment rates seem to be converging to around a 6 per cent level, neither great nor amazingly bad.

Adelaide has been the outlier on this measure.

Over the past two years New South Wales and Victoria (read: Melbourne) have created more than 85 per cent of net new employment (+333,000 jobs), although Brisbane has had a more than decent past 12 months (+34,900 jobs). 

Residex April update

CoreLogic is reporting that Sydney's median home value has increased by 6.9 per cent over the last quarter, the figure perhaps skewed higher by the running of some new parameters.

In its monthly market update Residex reported that Sydney's median house price increased by 0.4 per cent month of April to $1,046,000.  

This is 10.6 per cent higher than one year ago, although the median looks to be struggling a bit to break new highs now.

Despite various gloomy predictions and talk of oversupply, Sydney unit prices increased by 1.3 per cent in the harbour city over the thee months to April to be 10.5 per cent higher over the year.

The median Sydney unit price is now at a new record high for unit prices anywhere in Australia of $695,000.


How is this occurring despite lower stock turnover and somewhat lower mortgage finance in New South Wales?

Without generalizing too much, the inner suburbs (where most units are located) are seeing feisty activity, but many of the outer or secondary suburbs are struggling. 

You can witness this trend in auction clearance rates, with the eastern suburbs, lower north shore, city & south, and northern beaches sub-regions continued star performers. 

As you move away from the prized inner suburbs the market begins to look a little sketchier, while some areas are in all likelihood experienced declining prices.

Remember that the reported median price is a midpoint of the frequency distribution, but it doesn't necessarily reflect what is happening across all markets.

Elsewhere, Residex reported that over the year to April there have been solid increases in house prices in Melbourne (10.8 per cent) and Brisbane (5.3 per cent). 

Residex noted that value declines in resources regions, although ongoing, appear to be easing.