Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 19 May 2016

Unemployment rate at a 30-month low

Unemployment rate slightly lowers

Some good news - the unemployment rate in April declined ever so slightly to its lowest level in 30 months at 5.722 per cent. 

Seen in its wider context and with the trend line inserted, the trend unemployment rate is now at a 31 month low. 

At the state level, New South Wales (5.3 per cent) has the lowest unemployment rate, and South Australia the highest (7.0 per cent). 

Superficially promising news.

However, delving beneath the cover plate the component parts of the data reveals a weaker story, with a decline in full-time jobs, hours worked, and participation. 

For example, the declining unemployment rate in Western Australia may seem to imply a turnaround in fortunes, whereas in reality full time employment growth has dried up since 2012.

It's obviously great that the unemployment rate has been in a downtrend.

However, if your base case was an interest rate cut in August based upon weak non-tradables inflation, then today's figures probably reinforced your position more than they contradicted it.