Pete Wargent blogspot

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers, & WargentAdvisory (institutional). 6 x finance author.

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the finest analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, a must-follow for in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Business Insider.

'I've been investing 40 years yet still learned new concepts; one of Australia's finest young commentators' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

'The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate - loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia' - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, 2 x NYT bestseller.

'Superlative work' - Grant Williams, founder RealVision.

Thursday, 23 June 2016

Population growth is accelerating again

On the up

The ABS reported it Demographic Statistics for the final quarter of 2015, which showed population growth accelerating again. 

There had previously been a glitch or backlog in the recording of births in New South Wales and Victoria, but this has now been fixed up. 

Annual "departures" reached a fresh but expected high of 156,500. 

There was a quarterly population increase of +71,300, which was a very strong result for a fourth quarter of the year, and a substantial increase from a revised +66,000 in the prior year.  

Previous preliminary estimates for net overseas migration were revised up a little, taking annual net overseas migration up to +177,000, the strongest result in a year.

As a result, annual population growth accelerated again to +326,100 (up from a revised =319,400 in March 2015). 

Man shortage

Australia's population was 23,940,300 by the end of 2015, having long since surged well past 24 million. 

The female population passed 12 million, but men still have a way to go, needing another 96,300 heads to meet this milestone. 

With new relaxed visa rules set to kick from 1 July, it's little surprise that the Department for Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) forecasts net overseas migration to continue accelerating all the way through to the end of its projected time horizon in 2020. 

The wrap

Overall, the population growth figures at the national level were a bit stronger than expected.

For the really interesting trends you need to drill down a level, with the internal migration statistics showing an enormous record surge of interstate migration towards Melbourne, and to a secondary extent Brisbane. 

I'll take a look at those sub-trends next.