Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 16 December 2016

"Please explain" for Sirtex (shemozzle)

Please explain

Further unhappy news for Sirtex Medical (ASX: SRX) shareholders as the ASX slaps the company with a "please explain" letter, "following a tip-off" to the ASX.

Listings Compliance also unsurprisingly didn't like the use of "imprecise terms", such as "double digit growth".

Company Secretaries and CFOs live in abject fear of letters like this, and it's never cool to get on the wrong side of compliance offers.

Sirtex explained in its reply that its futures sales are inherently unpredictable with "no transparency on dose sales" and a "very short sales cycle".

This may arguably be a sound explanation to the points raised by ASX Listing Compliance, but then again it's also hardly likely to inspire confidence in prospective shareholders.

The share price not surprisingly got trashed (again). 

The 52-week high of above $41 looks a way off now following today's close at $16.40 (I can remember when Wilson's had some huge price target's on this stock!). 

Despite the illusory comfort provided by continuous disclosure rules, this is another of the pitfalls of investing or speculating in individual companies.

The narrative fallacy allows investors to convince themselves that they understand highly specialised industries that in reality they have no experience in, and opaque reporting or inexact forecasts can lead to materially inaccurate calculations of a company's intrinsic value.

Last week it transpired that Goldman Sachs had sold done a big chunk of its substantial shareholding.

The CEO himself had dumped $2 million of stock only five weeks ago, which should probably have been a big sell signal.

In related news, Bellamy's (ASX: BAL) also saw its share price annihilated from a high of $15.73 to $6.68, and has now been suspended from official quotation. Bellamy's key execs (CEO and Chair) were also dumping shares at $14 in August. What a joke!



Just saw this epic spray from Motley Fool, which lists a dozen red flags and says that SRX has no credibility, and "only the gullible or misguided" would buy shares.

That's a big turnaround from the multi-billion dollar opportunity a fortnight ago.

I guess Tom R was a shareholder (in both companies) from the wildly emotive reaction!