Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Monday, 9 January 2017

Massive retail expansion for WA

The residential construction boom looks to be on its last legs, so we should be watching the non-residential approvals figures to whether there is any looming activity to pick up the slack. 

The recent multi-billion-dollar spike in September related to Packer's multi-billion-dollar casino and hotel development at Barangaroo in Sydney. 

Both Sydney and Melbourne have seen strong increases in the inevitably 'lumpy' non-residential approvals figures. 

Drilling into the sectoral figures Western Australia is no longer approving factories as it was at the peak of the mining boom.

However, there has been some solid counter-cyclical approvals activity in the public sector in health, education, and office buildings (although health expenditure appears to be curiously pro-cyclical in these figures, in fact there were some big ticket private sector items during the peak of the mining boom).

Billions of dollars in approvals are also set to be been passed for retail expansion in Perth and WA, including at Mandurah Forum, Westfield Whitford City, Karrinyup, Westfield Innaloo, Westfield Garden City, Westfield Carousel, and Westfield Galleria. 

Vacancy rates are high in Perth, and dwelling prices can be expected to decline into a fourth calendar year in 2017. 

That said, declines in Perth's median prices have only been steady and moderate, with the official ABS figures showing its price index down by 7.4 per cent over the last ten quarters. 

Always hard to pick the bottom, but based on enquiries and general scuttlebutt, I'd presently plump for 2018.