Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 15 February 2017

Commercial lending falling in WA

Commercial downturn

The recovery in commercial finance commitments has largely been driven by New South Wales and Victoria through this easing cycle. 

Looking in more detail at the figures for Western Australia and the challenge for the resources states becomes clearer.

One of the key problems is simply that the economy is so pro-cyclical.

When resources construction was booming in WA, so too were dwelling construction, home-buying, and property investor loans. 

In fact, through to 2014 demand for everything seemed to be exceptionally high as the state population swelled at pace. 

Unfortunately, all of these sectors are now in decline together, and this will likely remain the case through 2017. 

The figures for engineering construction activity are already rising again in the eastern states, but it looks as though the downturn has another year or so to run out west, and possibly in the Northern Territory. 

As the economy in WA has slowed, some workers have opted to move (or return home) interstate.

A few property price indicators and indexes have recorded moderate gains for Perth in recent months.

However, with vacancy rates as high as they are, it still doesn't feel much as though the bottom is in.

Similarly, the economy isn't showing too many vital signs either just yet.

Probably the turning point for dwelling prices will come when it becomes cheaper for new market entrants to buy than it is for them to rent. 

Perth, Western Australia, City