Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 3 March 2017

Biggest wheat crop on record

Bumper crop

It's been a challenging decade indeed for Australia's agriculture industry, with droughts and other burdensome problems having arisen. 

More lately the takeover of Graincorp (ASX: GNC) by Archer Daniels Midland was blocked by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) for not being in the national interest, leading CEO Alison Watkins from agribusiness to Coca-Cola Amatil (ASX: CCL). 

A browse through the national accounts this week - which I ripped apart in a bit more detail here - showed that not only have prospects for the agricultural sector picked up, it's been by far the best performing sector of the economy over the 2016 calendar year as measured by industry Gross Value Added (GVA).

Australia's quarterly GDP increased by 1.1 per cent to $422.5 billion in the December quarter, and the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector was one of the key contributors to the rebound. 

In fact, it had been an all-comers record-smashing winter season for Aussie wheat growers, with total winter crop production up by almost 50 per cent in 2016 according to the Australian Government statistics.

Elsewhere, mining export volumes continue to do what they have been doing. 

But it's far from all good news.

After all, the number of persons actually employed in agriculture has nosedived over the past three decades, while direct mining employment has never really accounted for a large share of the workforce (it's about 236,000 today). 

The weakest performing sector was construction, wherein the winding up of the respective construction phases of some huge resources projects has contributed to a decline in output over the last four quarters consecutively.

Given that residential construction also looks set to peak this year - a sector known for its powerful multiplier effect - well, this is not really a positive look for the economy!

Construction has been a huge driver of industry GVA over the past decade and the sector now directly employs 1,062,000 Australians (from a total workforce of just under 12 million). and growth, anyone?