Given that mortgage rates have declined substantially since 2014, the budget impact today of negative gearing appears to be heading towards trifling.
Yeah, I know, the banks are doing it tough out there now.
Probably not that many people, I reckon.
For evidence? Take a look at the national accounts.
The total interest payable by households on outstanding mortgage debt implies a considerably lower average mortgage rate than the quoted 'rack rates' (record mortgage buffers and the use of offset accounts have likely played a role here too).
Negative gearing doesn't really represent a 'loss' to the budget as such - rather it is a timing difference, with the 'loss' typically recouped as investment properties become cash flow positive over time, or in capital gains tax at the point of sale.
With relatively few new dwellings being bought or constructed by owner-occupiers, the government also saves further by constructing comparatively little social housing.
Treasurer ScoMo won't be going there.