Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Sunday, 19 March 2017

Geelong tees off

Thar she blows...

As someone allegedly knows something about property, I have to confess I didn't participate in Melbourne's property market through its recent stellar run, having been focused on Sydney, and more lately Brisbane. 

At least I won't miss out on Geelong, though.

Geelong had always looked to be a likely contender for the ripple effect from Melbourne, being located less than 50 miles from the capital, and being a generally good city in its own right.

And then the Labor government more or less nailed it on by announcing a series of measures to stimulate the market.

I broke a golden rule of thumb when discussing possible price impacts here when I estimated that median house prices in the city could feasibly rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2020 (never use numbers; they always go for the numbers...).

Somehow, that became a median price of $600,000 (refer here for my actual view: "it's not hard to envision prices in Geelong moving 20 to 30 per cent higher by June 2020, particularly in the sub-$600,000 bracket").

Anyhoo, the point was that prices could rise as a result of the stimulatory measures, not least because the new legislation doesn't take full effect for months, affording opportunists a free kick at buying before 1 July. 

And it looks like prices are teeing off already.

Last weekend the auction clearance rate in Geelong moved above 90 per cent, the highest regional or non-capital city clearance rate in the country.

And there are now regular stories of street records being smoked.

This weekend a house that last sold for $310,000 in 2009 sold for an astonishing $836,000 at auction. 

It looks like a rocket has been put under house prices in Geelong West.   


All the hallmarks of a nascent boom.