Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Thursday, 9 March 2017

Half-decade low for Melbourne vacancies?

Vacancies trending down

Interesting statistics from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), which suggest that record population growth in Melbourne is absorbing the new supply of apartments.

In fact, the 6-month average trend for vacancy rates is sitting at its lowest level across the chart which spans half a decade.  


This mirror a similar pattern to Sydney, where population growth has also accelerated.

Still, there are attached dwellings aplenty under construction in Victoria and New South Wales.

And these are overwhelmingly located in Melbourne and Sydney.


Defaults begin

It could be an interesting year ahead for the apartment market.

With mainland Chinese investors reportedly now struggling to settle on apartments, it is a near certainty that apartment commencements will fall sharply, particularly in the three most populous capital cities. 

In Brisbane high-rise approvals have already dropped from record highs to near zero as developers back away from the looming glut of supply. 

While the slowdown in construction may be no bad thing for the unit market at face value, it's worth remembering that the construction industry employs well over 1 million Australians, so the impact on employment will likely be material.