Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Saturday, 18 March 2017

The glass half...

Jobs to turn a corner?

A bit of water has flowed under the bridge since the February jobs figures were out.

There seem to be two prevailing viewpoints.

Firstly, there is the view that the weak numbers were a monthly blip, and other indicators such as surveys for business conditions and job advertisements suggest a stronger year ahead for hiring.

It's a plausible argument, and you might even argue that the trend for annual employment growth has already turned a corner, with full time employment faring better lately too. 


The counter-argument is simply that taken at face value February was a bad result portending weakness in the economy. 

One might add to that, almost all of the jobs created over the past year have been located in Melbourne, with Sydney rolling over after a strong run, and the resources states still unravelling as construction activity falls away. 


More hours, please

One of the reasons that rate hikes could be further away than a lot of people seem to think is that beneath the surface the employment figures do suggest plenty of spare capacity, even on top of an uncomfortably high unemployment rate of 5.9 per cent. 


The youth unemployment figures are weak enough, and as I already looked at previously, the underutilisation rate for 25 to 34 year olds is dire


Meanwhile, underemployment as a proportion of the employed is higher across every state and territory than we saw in the lead up to the financial crisis, which in part explains weak wages growth. 


Moreover, the question mark looming over all of the above numbers is how far construction employment will fall over the next couple of years.