Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Wednesday, 12 April 2017

Investors pile into...Sydney

Sydney surge

Today's Lending Finance figures from the ABS showed that total lending is trending down from a relatively high level. 

You'll have to subscribe for my reports to get the industry level insights as there isn't enough space for them here, but summarily commercial lending to businesses is rather struggling along. 

Reflexivity in action

I will just take a quick look at property investor loans here, though, as this is always a popular data series. 

The value of investor loans is still trending down in Western Australia, though of course the median value of property has also declined. 

Most of the recent resurgence in investor lending since the ALP pledged to quarantine negative gearing deductions to new builds has been seen in Sydney and then Melbourne, in that order. 

Meanwhile, investors continue to give Darwin the cold shoulder.

Paradoxically, macroprudential policies implemented at the national level are needed by many of Australia's declining housing sub-markets like a hole in the head. 

That's ultimately why investors need to focus on quality - it doesn't necessarily matter all that much what 'the' Aussie housing market is doing, rather that the property or properties you own is doing relatively better than the rest! 

This is particularly true now that banks are becoming far less inclined to extend loans to investors for large portfolios, while implementing tighter serviceability criteria.