Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 6 April 2017

Migration

Employees flocking to eastern capitals

I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.

The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 per cent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 per cent.

And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.

In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.

A valid question is: why?

There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".

The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. 

The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. 

In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. 

Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. 

Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.


Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. 

The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.

Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). 

The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.

Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.

Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne.