Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Friday, 11 August 2017

Lending to business awakens

Business lending bounces

Lending finance displayed some solid 'bouncebackability', jumping by +8.3 per cent to a 7-month high of $73.59 billion. 


The rebound was driven by a bolshie +13.7 per cent uplift in commercial finance, while lending for renovations also trended up to their highest level in 7 years in June, helping to push total owner-occupier lending higher. 

Commercial lending has now picked up positively, up by nearly +30 per cent from a year earlier.

No stress?

Reserve Bank Governor Lowe today pointed the finger at a recent inequality "scare campaign" noting that fewer households are experiencing financial stress than 15 years ago.

Interestingly enough, despite a small uptick in June, personal finance commitments are still plumbing the depths at levels not seen since a decade and a half ago - even in nominal terms - confirming that consumers have clearly been winding down non-housing loan debt in the prevailing low interest rate environment. 

There are a couple of exceptions to this general rule, being higher borrowing for new cars - which are considerably cheaper than they used to be - and for renovations, for which I blame The Block (or more realistically, record stamp duty levies which necessarily discourage housing market mobility). 


Investor loans divergence

Lending to property investors is no longer growing at a breakneck pace, and indeed as a share of housing loans is being pared back. 

Splitting out the value of investor loans by states shows a significant divergence, with New South Wales and Victoria still rising, but relatively subdued activity elsewhere. 

Arguably restrictions on investor loans have not impacted the hotter Sydney and Melbourne markets as much as they have elsewhere - the good old law of unintended consequences - though these trends could yet shift. 


In Darwin the annual value of investor loans continued to decline to the lowest level since 2006.


Indeed, there's a genuine emerging risk that the population of the Northern Territory could actually fall into decline at some point over the next couple of years, which could lead to some rather interesting housing market dynamics!

The Commonwealth Bank announced a range of reductions to its fixed rate mortgages this morning, both for owner occupiers and for investors.