Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Friday, 4 August 2017

Retail trade was strong in Q2

Retail surges

Another prod in the eye for the mortgage stress meme, as monthly retail turnover surged by some +1.91 per cent or nearly half a billion dollars in the second quarter of 2017, to $26.15 billion. 

So, what gives?

Realistically a more likely narrative given that households have literally never had such a huge pile of cash and deposits - more than $1 trillion in aggregate! - is that more are opting to get ahead on mortgage repayments, thus apparently weakening their net cash flows in the 2017 financial year. 

Annual retail turnover growth moved +3.8 higher over the financial year, the best annualised result since April 2016.

Given the weak deflator, real retail sales surged by +1.5 per cent in the second quarter, indicating a likely solid contribution to GDP growth in the national accounts. 

Southern states pick up

A look at the longer terms growth in retail turnover by states shows how the resources states have lagged in recent years while New South Wales and Victoria have bounded ahead. 

Retail activity - like jobs growth - appears to be off and running again in New South Wales, while the southern states have picked up the mantle lately. 

Finally at the industry level there may be some evidence of household goods restocking after flooding and the Cyclone, while eating out remains perennially popular. 

Sadly, department stores are still copping in tough, a trend which is unlikely to improve much any time soon given increasingly testing competition. 

The wrap

Overall, this was a fine result which beat expectations. 

The big picture for retail is that while prices may be weak, volumes are doing OK.