2-Sense podcast: Is inflation coming back to Australia?

2-Sense

This week we discussion, inflation, the forthcoming Budget night, and the push towards Build to Rent.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch on YouTube below:

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

US labor market appears to be finally cracking

US payrolls are slowing

The US unemployment rate has remained steadfastly low, over the past couple of years, but increased more than expected to 3.9 per cent in April, having gradually moved higher from the cycle low of 3.4 per cent.

It was also the weakest gain for payrolls in six 6 months, even as the economy notched a 40th consecutive monthly gain. 

Despite high population growth, payrolls increased by far less than expected at +175,000, with revisions stripping another -22,000 from the preceding two months. 

Job openings also declined in March, it was reported this week.

Importantly, the growth in average hourly earnings slowed to just +0.2 per cent overt the month, and at +3.9 per cent over the year fell below +4 per cent for the first time in nearly 3 years. 

With an election coming up in the US the commentary from economists is becoming increasingly and sometimes absurdly partisan, which journalists torn between the desire to talk up a strong economy and breathe a sigh of relief that high interest rates are finally doing their job.

With most borrowers in the US using long-term fixed rate mortgages, tighter policy has taken a long time to show any meaningful effect on spending and hiring, but it does look as though things might finally be cracking a little.

Not a disaster, of course, with the headline unemployment rate still very low, but markets will love to see the prospect of lower interest rates by the final quarter of 2024, to be reflected in a very strong trade for stock markets and significantly lower Treasury yields across the curve. 

Housing lending skews to higher income earners

Lending picks up again

The value of lending for housing increased by 3 per cent in March 2024, to be 17 per cent higher than a year earlier. 

There was a continued low level of lending for construction, while investor lending is picking up gradually.

Source: ABS

The average size of investment loan increased to a new record high, leading for the usual calls to tighten up lending even further, which is nonsensical.

It's important to note, however, that the average loan size is naturally skewing higher under the new settings, because lower income earners are shut out of the market by the 3 percentage points lending assessment buffer.

A 300 basis points buffer potentially makes sense when interest rates are low and expected to rise.

But now interest rates are higher and expected to fall over the years ahead, so the buffer penalises first homebuyers and single-income households in the pursuit of 'stability'.

Stability may be a laudable goal, but it's questionable whether shutting off the new supply of apartment sales will lead to more or less stability over the medium term, with rents now rocketing, and a chronic shortage of housing stock (to be inevitably followed by a corresponding high-rise glut down the track). 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Unit approvals are outright tanking

Approvals collapse gathers pace

The ABS released the latest building approvals figures, and they ain't good.

For house approvals the only bright spot is Perth. 

Everywhere else looks set to be undersupplied. 

Unit approvals were just dire, and look especially low in Brisbane where construction costs are simply too high to make unit projects work at today's prices. 

Overall, house approvals are holding up, thanks to Perth, and unit approvals are outright collapsing.

Unit prices may need to rise 50 per cent in most areas before we see any kind of meaningful supply response (although the government will push for more Build to Rent developments). 

Overall, only 162,000 dwellings were approved over the past year, the lowest in 11 years. 

The ABS highlighted the reason for the malaise, which is high construction costs, with the average approval value rising across all states, to be 50 per cent higher over the past four years. 

The housing market looks set to be largely undersupplied for the remainder of the decade. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Perth housing market cyclical boom

Perth boom

Low content output this week as I've been at an event on the Gold Coast!

CoreLogic released its monthly housing market report, which showed (or confirmed) what everyone already knew, that Perth's housing market is continuing to absolutely tee off.

I'm actually heading over to Perth next week for the first time in some years, so it'll be interesting to see first hand how things have changed out on the west coast.

Perth prices were up around +6 per cent over the quarter, with Adelaide (+3.3 per cent) and Brisbane (+3.1 per cent) also continuing to record strong price growth. 

Over the past three months, of the 8 capital cities only Melbourne has not recorded nominal price growth.

Source: CoreLogic

Generally the price growth has been recorded across the lower price points of the market of late, as tighter borrowing capacities are biting. 

Rents have been rising faster than prices since November, according to CoreLogic, and rents rose around +2.7 per cent over the quarter, again led by Perth (+3.9 per cent). 

You can track down CoreLogic's full monthly report here. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Weakest retail result in two decades

Retail recession

Pouring cold water on the notion that the economy needs to be cooled further, retail turnover was incredibly weak in the month of March, falling -0.4 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.

Allowing for issues with seasonality, the year-on-year growth was the slowest in 20 years, despite record high population growth.

The graph shows a fascinating story of lockdowns, reopenings, and spikes in consumer prices!

Source: ABS

Retail figures basically don't get much weaker than that.

Retail turnover is 30 per cent higher than it was 5 years earlier, but the population of Australia has increased by 1.9 million (+7½ per cent) over that time, and of course retail prices took quite a sizeable leap through the pandemic as well. 

I'll let others kick over the entrails there, and instead take a run through the Reserve Bank's credit growth figures from last month's Financial Aggregates, which slowed a little to 0.3 per cent in March (from 0.5 per cent in February). 

Housing credit growth actually picked up a bit over the month from 0.37 per cent to 0.40 per cent. 

The uptick was driven by both owner-occupiers, and this month, investors. 

Over the year, housing credit growth picked up a little to 4.3 per cent. 

The past year has been characterised by stock shortages, pushing housing price growth far ahead of what might've been expected or implied by the credit impulse. 

We thus may well find that the peak for the rate of housing price growth was in the first quarter of 2024, as higher mortgage rates now begin to bite. 

Overall, solid credit growth figures for housing, but incredibly soft retail spending, which will rightly be today's main economic story. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Big Picture Podcast: Property shocker

Big Picture Podcast

Some remarkable stats for for you this month on the Big Picture Podcast with Michael Yardney.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: Cranes, cranes, everywhere, but...

2-Sense podcast

Another day, another development firm collapse. 

This time it was Hansen Constructions in Queensland, a large player, and another bellwether for wider industry conditions.

The housing supply shortfall could endure throughout the decade the way things are doing. 

This week on the podcast, Batesy and I discussed where the cranes are, what's happening with office space, and residential property market news.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

There's also a YouTube version here:

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 32,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.6 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to pre-order here or on Amazon here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.